Summer Was Supposed To Be Slow: Marin Market Update, Q3 2026
Summer is usually when Marin real estate takes a breather. People head to Tahoe, listings thin out, and things get quiet enough that we wrote a whole post about it.
This summer didn't follow the script. Marin sold 553 single-family homes between July and September, 19% more than the summer before, even though there were far fewer homes to choose from. Here's how the quarter played out, and what it means if you're thinking about buying or selling.
More Buyers, Fewer Homes
When September ended, there were only 271 single-family homes for sale in all of Marin. A year earlier there were 389, so buyers had about 30% fewer options.
To put that in perspective, homes were selling fast enough that if no one had listed anything new, Marin would have run out of inventory in about six weeks. Last summer, the same math came to roughly two and a half months.
Then there were the homes that never reached the open market at all. 83 Marin homes sold off-market this quarter, about one in seven sales, up from one in eight in the spring. With so little on the public market, those quiet sales were a big share of the real options, and buyers without the right connections never knew they existed. Here's how off-market access works.
The Good Homes Went Fast
92 homes went into contract in under five days, and another 115 within ten. The typical Marin home sold in 17 days, ten days faster than the summer before. In Larkspur and Greenbrae, it was eight.
If you've been waiting for the right house, that pace matters. The best ones were often spoken for before the first weekend open house.
Cash Buyers Had a Big Summer
232 of the 553 homes sold this quarter went to buyers paying all cash. That's 42%, up from 36% in the spring.
In practical terms, if you wrote an offer this summer, there was close to a coin-flip chance the competing offer had no loan, no appraisal, and no lender timeline. That's a tough offer to beat, though there are real ways to compete with it. More on that below.
Half of Homes Sold Over Asking
51.4% of Marin homes sold above their list price, up from 37.4% the summer before. On average, sellers got 103.5% of asking, which works out to about $70,000 over on a $2,000,000 home.
Prices eased a little from their spring high, which happens every summer, and still finished well ahead of last year. The median sale price rose 6.7% to $1,760,000, and the median price per square foot rose 6.9% to $886. For a 2,000 square foot home, that's about $114,000 more than a year ago.
Town by Town
Southern Marin held its value and picked up speed. Mill Valley's median price stayed close to last year at $2,250,000, and homes there sold in 13 days. Tiburon sold 35 homes, up from 26, and Sausalito homes sold in 18 days, compared with 42 the year before. Belvedere nearly doubled its sales, and its median climbed 11% to $6,300,000.
The biggest jump in activity was further north. San Rafael sales rose 42% and Novato's rose 40%, while Novato's median price barely moved. With Southern Marin this tight, more buyers widened their search and found more room in those towns.
Small sample sizes in most towns. Interpret with caution. Source: SFAR Super Regional MLS / BrokerMetrics. Marin County single-family homes, Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025.
What Rising Rates Mean for You
One thing the summer numbers don't capture yet is what happened to mortgage rates. The 30-year rate climbed from about 6.4% in early July to 7.4% by October 8, according to Freddie Mac. On a median-priced Marin home with 20% down, that adds roughly $900 to the monthly payment.
Most of the homes that closed this summer went into contract before rates jumped, so this fall will show how buyers respond. If you're financing, here's what we're telling our clients:
Ask about a rate buydown. Instead of asking a seller to lower the price, you can ask for a credit that lowers your interest rate. On a $2,000,000 home, a $40,000 buydown can save you about as much each month as a $123,000 price cut. It works best on homes that have been sitting a while, and about half of Marin homes sold at or below asking this summer. Here's how it works.
Get fully underwritten. When four in ten buyers are paying cash, a pre-approval letter often won't hold up. Full underwriting means your lender has already verified your income, assets, and credit, so your offer reads as solid. Here's the difference.
Look into a bridge loan. If you need to buy before you sell, a bridge loan lets you make an offer that can compete with cash. We love working with Sofia Nadjibi at Golden Gate Lending Group.
Meanwhile, Across the Bridge
If Marin felt competitive, San Francisco was on another level. The median single-family home in the city sold for $2,000,000 this quarter, up 23% from a year earlier and well above Marin's median. Nearly 88% of homes there sold over asking, and the average home went for 27% over list. On a $2,000,000 listing, that's about $540,000 over asking.
City inventory fell 21% too. Plenty of buyers worn out by those bidding wars are now looking north, and Southern Marin is usually where they look first.
Source: SFAR MLS / BrokerMetrics via Vanguard Properties. San Francisco single-family homes, Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025.
Where That Leaves You
If You're Selling
Late winter and spring are your window. New money is coming into the Bay Area, inventory is down 30% from last year, and our seasonal data shows buyer demand picks up in the first weeks of the new year. Getting a home ready usually takes four to eight weeks, so if you're thinking about a February or March launch, now is the time to start the conversation.
If You're Buying
There's less to choose from, and the good homes move quickly. The rate climb may thin out the competition a bit this fall, which could work in your favor. Get your financing in order, keep an eye on homes that have been on the market a while, and work with an agent who can show you the homes that never make it online.
Source: SFAR Super Regional MLS / BrokerMetrics. Marin County single-family homes, Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025. Mortgage rates: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
