What the Data Shows About Timing Your Home Sale
Source: TrendGraphix / BrokerMetrics. Marin County single family homes, all price ranges, on and off-market, April 2023 – April 2026. Monthly values estimated from quarterly-labeled chart data.
If you've ever wondered whether the season you list matters, the answer is yes. Three years of Marin County sales data tells a consistent story: two strong selling windows, two quieter periods, and real differences in what sellers can expect from each.
This post is about the numbers. If you're still weighing the broader question, our post on the best time to sell in Marin is a good place to start.
The pattern
Marin runs on two primary selling seasons. Spring, February through mid-June, is when sales volume peaks, buyer energy is highest, and homes move fastest. Fall picks back up mid-August through mid-November, with a strong push after Labor Day. Outside those windows, activity softens. The chart above tracks three years of closed sales and average sold price. The shape of the calendar stays remarkably consistent year over year.
Summer and winter: the real risk
Sales volume drops in summer. Average sold price follows. Fewer closings, lower prices, less competitive pressure. The buyers who were most motivated either bought something in spring or are waiting for fall.
Homes still sell in summer and winter, but as a seller, you want as many eyes on your property as possible. You want buyers competing. The off-season makes that harder. It's also why we see more off-market activity during these periods. Sellers who want to test their price without accumulating days on market often approach it quietly. Off-market isn't a fallback, it's a deliberate strategy.
For buyers, the flip side is true: summer and winter are historically when you're more likely to find a home with less competition.
Fall: a real second season
Fall brings a genuine return of buyer activity. The data shows a consistent recovery in both volume and pricing after the summer break. Fall buyers are motivated and clear about what they want. Well-prepared homes priced correctly perform very well. The competitive dynamic is a different momentum from spring, but the outcomes are still strong.
What the data tells you
If your goal is the highest possible price and the most competitive offer environment, spring gives you the best conditions. Fall is a strong second window. Summer and winter carry more risk on the public market, and that risk shows up in the data every single year.
The seasonal pattern is real. But it doesn't determine what's right for your home specifically. Our job is to help you understand where your situation fits, and build a strategy around your goals. Book a call anytime.
Data: TrendGraphix / BrokerMetrics, Marin County single family homes, all price ranges, on and off-market, April 2023 – April 2026.